Machinery of Government has picked an odd time to go on hiatus. But I can’t let the start of parliamentary term begin without more dubious speculation.
Anyone who hoped that the summer would calm Westminster down was wrong. If you want proof, read the Sunday Times: Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn are both being stalked by assassins. In the case of the Tories it’s Boris and the hard Brexiteers; plus an attempt to create an alternative Chequers. In Labour it sounds like Gordon Brown and the deputy leader are drawing up battle lines against the Leader’s Office. This is before anyone’s even had a chance to unpack their luggage and swap holiday snaps.
It will be bedlam. But for my own sanity (given I have business of my own to do this parliamentary season), I have been trying to think through a few different perspectives. As a public service, I share these for discussion. I’ve characterised this as consisting of a central path in which the rules of the game largely continue as they are, and a set of game-changers that might intrude at key points.
Stage 1: The first bun-fight comes in the next two weeks. For Labour, there’s a serious discussion about whether discontents should launch a challenge/walk-out before party conference or after. For the Tories, the PM has convened another Chequers-style Brexit summit on the 12th.
This second summit has the potential to be a decisive moment: Chequers I was meant to be the moment that government defined a position and required the party to back it. It almost worked, before it really, really didn’t. It’s May’s last chance to either reinvigorate her deal, or to strike out in a different direction. Either of those outcomes is an excuse for Tory malcontents to get angry. There ae also reports that, if the PM doesn’t get backing, she’ll call a snap election.
Stage 2: Party Conference Season this year will be like nothing else with two parties that are primed for civil war. The Labour conference is likely to be worse: now the left has taken over the party machinery they may impose measures that make the moderates feel they can’t stay.
But another interesting development is that the conference will debate their Brexit policy – which might be an opening for the people’s vote brigade. If you’re Corbyn, and you’re trying to hold your party together, one way to change the agenda and retain the grumpy cooperation of a lot of critics would be to offer a referendum on the final deal. It also is something that would unite the other non-Tory parties, and tempt away Tory rebels. I don’t think Corbyn is normally good enough at politics to do this sort of deal, but it’s possible.
As for the Tory conference, that will be a time of much plotting. A lot depends on that 12th September summit: it either comes in behind May, or it means opposition to her becomes even clearer. I’d personally be expecting Boris to make his play around here.
Stage 3: As the survivors of party conference season limp into October, we all have an awful realisation. Although Brexit day is at the end of March, the nature of EU decision-making means you have to have a deal in place by November or else there isn’t time to clear it. That’s less than two months from the end of conference season.
Given that both the UK and the EU want a deal, this is going to be the time of panic, rumour and fudge. In the absence of a clear deal, the EU might make an offer based on its existing relationships (Norway, Switzerland, etc). Rumour has it, this is already being discussed. If the UK doesn’t have a clear position after conference, we’re probably stuck with whatever is on the table, or walking away (in either direction). If we say yes to anything, expect cries of ‘betrayal’. If we walk away or extend article 50, at least one part of the debate will have its head explode.
That latter scenario definitely pushes us back into parliament, and the long-recognised reality that no option – stay, deal or no deal – has majority support. I suspect you can get grumbling assent across parliament to a deal or to a referendum, but I’m not sure the current government can survive any of the three without losing its majority.
Game changer 1 – snap election: this is the government’s wild-card. In order for this to solve anything, a snap election needs to increase the government’s effective majority, specifically on Brexit matters. Would it? The comparison everyone would draw would be the 1974 election when Ted Heath, faced with a great battle with the unions, asked ‘Who runs the country?’. The answer from the voters was ‘not you, mate.’
But Labour is divided and the one thing that might genuinely unite the Tory party is keeping Corbyn out of No.10. The maths become a lot worse if Farage and UKIP return from the dead; but after an election win, May might be strong enough to force through her deal. I personally think it’s suicide, but death by your own hand could be preferable to the other options.
Game-changer 2 – Tory leadership contest: There isn’t really a more irresponsible time to kick off a Tory leadership contest than September 2018. As discussed below, this is when we have to hit a Brexit deal, or we have a whole domino-run of problems.
Unlike 2016, there will be no compromise candidate: the party dynamics don’t allow for it. Indeed, the way the system relies on running off two candidates against each other guarantees that one part of the party will be incensed at the final choice and consider splitting. My money would be on Hunt or Javid vs Gove in the final ballot. In this situation, I’d expect any new PM to make an urgent application to extend the article 50 timetable, and another year or more of Brexit fun
Game-changer 3 – new centre party: A proper Labour split is definitely on the cards, and potentially in a matter of weeks. We might find ourselves arguing about when is a split not a split (did you know that the Labour Party includes a smaller Co-op Party, that the dissenters might take over and then use to claim they haven’t split at all?). But whether they’re Labour, Co-Op, Independent Labour or Consignia it’ll still mean an independent policy position. That in turn is significant for Brexit, where Labour’s current policy (which is to avoid having a positive policy at all costs) has arguably been one of the things keeping the government alive these past twelve months.
It rules out any government other than a Tory-led one, since it will never support a Corbyn-led Labour party. But it also might drag in discontented Tory MPs too (especially if Boris becomes Tory leader). That in turn breaks the government’s majority, and forces a general election.
Game-changer 4 – the people’s vote: If you want a second referendum, the time to tune in is going to be between November and February. The challenge here is for the government to get parliamentary support for whatever approach it takes. Different factions of the Tory party won’t back various compromises – no deal won’t fly with the remainers, and Chequers/son-of-Chequers won’t work with the hard-Brexiteers.
Outside of the Tory party, there appears to be a group of MPs who are willing to do a deal with the devil – back the government in return for a second referendum on the final deal (with people choosing both first and second preferences). That does overcome the parliamentary maths, and at least solves the legitimacy question for whatever end state we get.
This option becomes more likely after January. One of the carefully prepared remainer traps is a minor piece of parliamentary process that effectively says that in January, in the absence of a deal, parliament gets to run the show. Having taken responsibility, I suspect MPs will want it off their hands as quickly as possible, making a second referendum an easy way out.
Time out?: There is one last possibility – that we simply time out. The process lasts for so long that Brexit happens, without a deal of any kind, and we’re cast out into the wilds of the world trading system. I personally think this is unlikely – too many procedural steps exist to avoid this, and I suspect that the reaction to the total absence of a deal would be unsustainable over the three months or so that would precede it. But unexpected things can happen.
A failure to deal spells the end for Theresa May, for those who trusted her, and possibly for the Tory party as we know it. Screwing up the ERM crisis in the early 90s did for the Tories’ reputation for economic competence; screwing up Brexit will break the party’s reputation for being the sensible, pragmatic party of government for a generation. I’m not sure the party could survive the shock, at least until Brexit is far enough in the past that we all decide it didn’t matter.